Next Storm May Form Off the South Coast of Mexico

Oct 1, 2014 7:23 AM

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico may become the next named system within the next 24 to 48 hours. Light wind shear and warm ocean waters are leading to an environment that is conducive for tropical development. The system will track to the west-northwest parallel to the coast of Mexico through the day on Friday. By the weekend, the system will take a more westerly track over the open waters of the Pacific.

Regardless of tropical development, this disturbance will produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico which can lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

The remainder of the basin remains quiet at this time and no tropical development is expected over the next several days.

By Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg

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National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC E. Pacific Activity

ABPZ20 KNHC 011141

500 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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10/1/2014 2:14:36 PM /hurricane/basin.asp 4 .75.111 (accuweather)-- [new]