East Pacific Basin Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center

Tropical Storm Norbert is located at 18.9° N, 106.5° W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph more >
Norbert
Norbert

Tropical Storm Norbert off the Coast of Mexico

Sep 2, 2014 5:56 PM

Tropical Storm Norbert is located not far off the western coast of Mexico, just southwest of Manzanillo. Conditions are favorable for some strengthening over the next couple of days. Norbert is currently moving northward but is expected to turn more northwestward later tonight, paralleling the coast.

The track of this system is somewhat problematic as model guidance is split on exactly how to handle it. Given the proximity to the coast, a slight adjustment in the track will have larger ramifications for how much impact Norbert has. The most likely scenario is for the system to roughly parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico and approach the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday night into Friday. Most computer models then take the system more westward out to sea, but there is a chance the storm hooks to the right and into Baja California. In any case, moisture from Norbert will enhance rainfall across the Baja and northwestern Mexico later this week, perhaps reaching the southwestern United States. The storm will also generate large waves with rough surf along the coast of Mexico.

All interests in Baja California and along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the development of Norbert over the next few days. Elsewhere across the basin, there are no imminent threats for tropical development.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

2014 East Pacific Storms

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National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC E. Pacific Activity

957 
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area producing gale-force winds, located about 200 miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  If current trends continue,
advisories will be initiated on a tropical storm later this morning.
This system is expected to move slowly northward and then
northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern
Baja California peninsula during the next few days, and interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of the disturbance.  Locally
heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides
over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&

For additional information on the low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Tropical Storm Dolly is located at 22.0° N, 97.3° W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph more >

Tropical Storm Norbert is located at 18.9° N, 106.5° W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph more >

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