2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: Numbers Down But Still a Threat
May 15, 2012 10:45 AM
AccuWeather's 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts 12 named tropical storms, five named hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The 2012 hurricane forecast is near-normal for the Atlantic Basin.
Predicting exactly where storms will make landfall in the U.S. would be extremely difficult, but there are some indications of areas where storms may brew and coasts that may be vulnerable based on weather patterns anticipated this summer.
"Home-grown" storms in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, near the U.S. Coast, are a possibility this year.
"Fronts coming down during June and July could cause energy to break off and develop tropically," Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather.com lead long-range forecaster, said.
"Another big storm is possible for the East Coast with heavy, flooding rain," Pastelok added. "With a ridge [of high pressure] over the Rockies and a trough [of low pressure] over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, the East Coast will be open for a hit [this summer]. Of course, this depends on where the storms form."
Meteorologists warn against a false sense of security. Although the overall forecast numbers for 2012 are lower than 2011, AccuWeather.com meteorologist Dan Kottlowski lead hurricane forecaster warns that it only takes one major hit to the U.S. to have a huge and devastating impact.
"People should take preliminary precautions and make preparations for hurricane season. Get a hurricane plan together and get hurricane supplies in order, such as materials to mitigate property damage. Make a family plan for evacuation, including what to bring," Kottlowski said.
The 1992 Atlantic Hurricane Season is an example of how overall numbers can lead to a false sense of security and one storm can break "hurricane amnesia" for places that have not had a direct hit in years.
The tropical season started slow and there were low numbers of named systems in 1992. During the entire season there was one subtropical storm, three tropical depressions, two tropical storms and four hurricanes.
The first tropical storm of the season was named on one of the latest dates ever recorded, on August 17. That storm was named Andrew and later strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane before slamming into Homestead, Fla.
Andrew is one of the most infamous hurricanes to strike Florida, and the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Camille in 1969. According to NOAA, Andrew caused $26 billion in damage and killed more than 60 people.
2012 Atlantic Storms
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence |
| Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie |
| Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sandy |
| Tony | Valerie | William | |||
Atlantic Basin Maps
National Hurricane Center Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141730 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED. ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Hurricane WeatherWhys®: Surf, Surge & Winds
Tropical Storm Aletta is located at 11.9° N, 111.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph more >
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Hurricane Features
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Atlantic Category 5 Storms
To qualify as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale, maximum sustained winds must exceed 155 mph (135 kt).
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Retired Hurricane Names
Hurricanes that have a severe impact on lives or the economy are remembered by generations after the devastation they caused, and some go into weather history.
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Download Hurricane Tracking Maps
AccuWeather.com has created a number of specialty maps designed for tracking the progress of tropical storms and hurricanes. Use these maps in conjunction with our Hurricane Position graphic, as well as statements issued by the NHC with storm positions.
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When and Where Do Hurricanes Occur?
Hurricanes (by whatever name) are by far most common in the Pacific Ocean, with the western Pacific being most active. In some years, the Philippines are struck by more than 20 tropical storms and typhoons.
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What Are the Parts of a Hurricane?
Low pressure in the hurricane can act as a plunger, slightly pulling up the water level. However, the components that contribute to the greatest storm surge affect are the winds blowing to the left side of the storm and the topography of the land as the storm makes land fall.
