Atlantic Basin Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center


Tropical Development Likely This Weekend

Aug 23, 2014 11:07 AM

An area of disturbed weather just north of Hispaniola is bringing heavy rain and tropical storm-force wind gusts to the island along with the southeastern Bahamas as it moves to the northwest.

Recent satellite data and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continue to show that there is no well-defined center of circulation associated with the disturbed weather. Recent satellite imagery has also shown a decrease in the amount of deep convection associated with the system. Therefore, this disturbance has not been named as of midday Saturday.

This system will push northwest and bring some heavier rainfall and gusty winds to the southern Bahamas through Sunday. As this storm moves away from the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, meteorologists expect it to become better organized and be named Tropical Storm Cristobal within the next 24-48 hours. As the storm moves through the Bahamas, heavy rain, rough surf and damaging wind gusts are possible through the remainder of the weekend over the Islands.

Although there is still uncertainty on the exact track of this storm, it is most likely to move through the Bahamas and then take a turn to the north and northeast, parallel to the United States coast through next week. Any possible effects to the United States are not expected until Monday at the earliest. Rough surf and rip currents are likely along the coast of Florida through at least the middle of next week as the storm parallels the coast. The storm is expected to ultimately curve northeastward away from the United States.

However, the longer that the system takes to develop, the more of a westerly track it will take. Therefore, if it remains disorganized for a longer period of time, it's not out of the realm of possibilities for the system to track closer to the Florida Peninsula. Meteorologists will continue to monitor this system over the next few days as it tries to organize into Cristobal.

It is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic Basin and tropical development is not expected over the next couple of days.

By Meteorologist Steve D. Travis and updated by Meteorologist Brian Edwards

2014 Atlantic Storms


National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

ABNT20 KNHC 231421

1025 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the disturbance located
near Hispaniola continues to lack a well-defined surface
circulation. As a result, advisories are not being initiated at this
time. However, environmental conditions are favorable for the
development of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today
or Sunday. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near
the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas
Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central
Bahamas through Sunday night. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and
Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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8/23/2014 3:20:10 PM /hurricane/basin.asp 4 .75.111 (accuweather)-- [new]