Atlantic Basin Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center

Strong Shear Across The Tropics

Oct 24, 2014 5:36 PM

A strongly sheared area of low pressure near Andros Island in the Bahamas will rapidly track to the east-northeast tonight and heavy rain will end over the northern and central Bahamas. The low pressure center will pass just south of Bermuda Saturday night and it will cause a round of heavy rain across the islands later Saturday and Saturday night. Amounts should average 0.50 to 1.00 inches, with some local amounts of 2.00 inches so this will impact clean up efforts from Hurricane Gonzalo.

The sheared remains of Tropical Depression 09 are located near lower Yucatan coast and they will slowly shift east and south through the weekend before stalling near the Honduran or Nicaraguan coast early next week. Since waters are quite warm and there is less wind shear near the Honduran coast, there is some chance of reorganization later this weekend or early next week. However, dry air to the north of the system and interaction with the Central American coast will be inhibiting factors.

High pressure currently over Texas will shift east across Florida early next week before reaching Bermuda by midweek. This will the steer the system into central America or perhaps back into the lower Yucatan Peninsula. The American global model shows the system getting into the southern Bay of Campeche later next week while the European model keeps it over southeast Mexico. The main impact from this system will be heavy rain over parts of central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through next week.

A large tropical wave about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles will struggle to develop due to strong wind sheer aloft.

By Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

2014 Atlantic Storms


National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

ABNT20 KNHC 242313

800 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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10/25/2014 3:29:20 AM /hurricane/basin.asp 4 .75.111 (accuweather)-- [new]