Atlantic Basin Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center


Watching the Atlantic Basin Closely

Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
A developing tropical cyclone east of the Lesser Antilles is tracking to the west-northwest toward the Leeward Islands. It will cause gusty winds and flooding downpours over the Leeward Islands tonight and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later tonight and tomorrow. Heavy rain and strong winds may effect the Dominican Republic tomorrow night into Saturday and the Bahamas Saturday night into Sunday. A hurricane hunter aircraft flew into the storm this afternoon and plans to do so again Friday. The aircraft did find a small area of tropical storm force winds but all in all, the system continues to be rather disorganized. The system is fighting dry air to the north and easterly wind shear aloft which will limit strengthening but it could become a depression or even perhaps even tropical storm Cristobal over next 24-48 hours. Upper level shear will weaken later tonight and tomorrow as the system approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico so its possible that it could be a strengthening tropical cyclone as it crosses those locations with flooding rain and possible mudslides and perhaps power outages. This system is being steered around southwestern edge of an area of high pressure over the central Atlantic. A developing low pressure center and deepening upper level trough east of the Del-Marva Peninsula will cause the Atlantic ridge to weaken and shift eastward. This could cause the tropical cyclone to turn more to the northwest near the Bahamas this weekend and then perhaps on a track toward the Southeast or mid-Atlantic coast or even Bermuda next week. Model consensus has moved away from a track into the Gulf of Mexico and are more in line with a track closer to Florida or the Bahamas. This makes sense given that the center of circulation has consolidated farther north. All interests in the Caribbean and from the eastern Gulf across Florida and the Bahamas to the eastern US coast and Bermuda should monitor the development of this system. by Meteorologist Mark Paquette

2014 Atlantic Storms


National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

ABNT20 KNHC 211957

400 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

Updated for reconnaissance information

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined.  In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Blake

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8/21/2014 9:57:45 PM /hurricane/basin.asp 4 .75.103 (accuweather)-- [new]