Monitoring Disturbed Weather Near Puerto Rico
Aug 22, 2014 5:16 PM
An area of low pressure moving north of Puerto Rico will slowly move to the northwest into this weekend. The main impact of this tropical wave and its associated area of low pressure will be for gusty winds and heavy rainfall tonight across Puerto Rico and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and tomorrow. As this system advances west toward the Bahamas, the environment will become more favorable for development. High pressure over the central Atlantic is steering the low pressure center to the west-northwest, but the high will shift farther east this weekend as an upper trough strengthens east of the mid-Atlantic coast. This will open the door for a track more to the northwest toward the upper trough. There may be bands of heavy showers and possibly gusty winds over the southern and central Bahamas this weekend. Computer models continue to show this system becoming a hurricane early next week.
The system should wind up northeast of the Bahamas early next week, and it may interact with what is left of the upper trough. This will send it to the northeast between the United States and Bermuda. As the storm moves across the open waters of the Atlantic, it will be close enough to the United States for rough surf and rip currents to impact Atlantic beaches through next week.
It is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic basin and tropical development is not expected over the next couple of days.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney, updated by Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg
Atlantic Basin Maps
National Hurricane Center Outlook
342 ABNT20 KNHC 222334 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those islands. However, the aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if necessary. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola could limit development tonight. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Gusty winds and heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with little advance notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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