Atlantic Basin Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center


Monitoring Disturbed Weather Near Puerto Rico

Aug 22, 2014 5:16 PM

An area of low pressure moving north of Puerto Rico will slowly move to the northwest into this weekend. The main impact of this tropical wave and its associated area of low pressure will be for gusty winds and heavy rainfall tonight across Puerto Rico and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and tomorrow. As this system advances west toward the Bahamas, the environment will become more favorable for development. High pressure over the central Atlantic is steering the low pressure center to the west-northwest, but the high will shift farther east this weekend as an upper trough strengthens east of the mid-Atlantic coast. This will open the door for a track more to the northwest toward the upper trough. There may be bands of heavy showers and possibly gusty winds over the southern and central Bahamas this weekend. Computer models continue to show this system becoming a hurricane early next week.

The system should wind up northeast of the Bahamas early next week, and it may interact with what is left of the upper trough. This will send it to the northeast between the United States and Bermuda. As the storm moves across the open waters of the Atlantic, it will be close enough to the United States for rough surf and rip currents to impact Atlantic beaches through next week.

It is quiet across the rest of the Atlantic basin and tropical development is not expected over the next couple of days.

By Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney, updated by Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg

2014 Atlantic Storms


National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

ABNT20 KNHC 222334

800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported
winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those
islands.  However, the aircraft data and surface observations
indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully
becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to
Hispaniola could limit development tonight.  Conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves
near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and
heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the
mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the
southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Hurricane WeatherWhys®: The Eye


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Fiercest Part

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Hurricane Karina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 15.5° N, 135.2° W with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, gusting to 90 mph more >

Tropical Storm Lowell is located at 22.4° N, 124.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 70 mph more >

Tropical Storm Marie is located at 13.4° N, 103.5° W with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 75 mph more >

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8/23/2014 1:33:16 AM /hurricane/basin.asp 4 .75.103 (accuweather)-- [new]