Atlantic Basin Hurricane & Tropical Storm Center

Hernan

Tropical Development This Week

Jul 28, 2014 9:49 PM

All eyes are focused on an area of convection currently centered near 10N 35W, several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the open Atlantic Ocean, classified as 93L. Satellite imagery this evening indicates that this feature is not strongly organized, as it remains impacted by moderate wind shear and dry, stable air. Until this system becomes fully organized, it is hard to get a handle on how intense it can become or where it will track, but current modeling suggests this system becoming organized by the latter half of the week and tracking near or over the Leeward Islands by Saturday. Modeling then takes the system over or just west of Bermuda by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. This is obviously something we will continue to monitor, but for now it appears that an upgrade to a depression or tropical storm is possible by tomorrow night or Wednesday.

Elsewhere across the basin, there are no concerns for tropical development.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve C. Travis and updated by Meteorologist Carl Erickson

2014 Atlantic Storms

ArthurBerthaCristobalDollyEdouardFay
GonzaloHannaIsaiasJosephineKyleLaura
MarcoNanaOmarPauletteReneSally
TeddyVickyWilfred

National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC Atlantic Activity

994 
ABNT20 KNHC 282319
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of
disturbed weather located about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has become a little better organized during the past
few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next several days while the system moves generally westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Hurricane WeatherWhys®: Season: Beginning, Middle & End

August's Ideal Conditions

August's Ideal Conditions image

Common Atlantic Scenario

Common Atlantic Scenario image

Tropical Storm Hernan is located at 22.1° N, 118.6° W with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph more >

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7/29/2014 4:35:39 AM /hurricane/basin.asp 4 .75.103 (accuweather)-- [new]